Latest Models Show Nevada is Flattening the Curve

Friday's projections for COVID-19 impacts in Nevada are lower than they were just two days ago. The latest predictions from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation show that Nevada's peak for daily coronavirus deaths happened on April 7, with 26 deaths. On Wednesday, it predicted April 19 as the peak, with 22 daily deaths. The difference between the two models also shows a decrease in total deaths from 445 to 254 by August 4, with the last death happening on May 12. Only time will tell how accurate the models are.

"The projections that we have with the models are varying significantly," Kevin Dick, Health Officer with the Washoe County Health District said. "I would remind everybody that that's a state projection and so it doesn't necessarily apply to us here in Washoe County, specifically."

Dick still expects Washoe County's peak to lag behind Nevada's peak of coronavirus cases. A second projection shows the number of hospitalizations dropping as well. On April 8, covidactnow.org projected 3,773 hospitalizations by June 13 using strict stay-at-home orders. It predicted 16,935 people hospitalized by June 19 using lax stay-at-home orders. The hospital overload would happen by May 17. It's latest model shows a much more promising outlook. It shows 1,175 hospitalizations with strict measures and 13,610 with lax measures. The date of hospital overload is pushed out to May 31.

"If it's correct, then that is promising but we don't know whether that's correct or not until after we get through the peak," Dick said. "We're only going to know it in retrospect after we've passed through that and look back at the data."

Dick added a new directive for Washoe County owners of short-term rentals. They are required to inform renters about the directive.

"If they are from out of the state of Nevada, that we are requiring them to remain in isolation at that residence, a self-quarantine for 14 days," Dick said.

Passover is underway and Easter is Sunday. People are prohibited from going to places of worship during the state of emergency and experts say they should not have large gatherings during the holiday weekend.

"We all need to make sure that we are working together to protect each other and our loved ones and to prevent the spread of this disease," Dick said.

The weather is also warming up in time for the weekend. Many people will head outdoors for a walk, hike or bike ride. They should use the same precautions as they have been practicing.

"If you go outside, you've got to maintain a safe distance from anybody who didn't come out of your house with you," Dr. Jenny Wilson, Medical Director for REMSA said.

Along with social distancing, proper hygiene is still an important way to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

"Even if you touch something, a swing set, a ball, a dog that has the coronavirus on it, as long as you wash your hands and don't touch your eyes, nose or mouth afterwards, it would be hard to get the virus in that way," Wilson said.